Risk Simulation and Queuing
This course will teach you modeling technique making decisions in the presence of risk or uncertainty, including risk analysis using Monte Carlo simulation, queuing theory for problems involving waiting lines, and decision trees for analyzing problems with multiple discrete decision alternatives.
Overview
This online course covers three important modeling techniques. Students will learn how to (1) construct and implement simulations to model the uncertainty in decision input variables (e.g. price, demand, etc.) and supplement the overall estimate of interest by a risk interval of possible other outcomes using risk simulation; (2) model the variability in arrivals over time (customers, cars at a toll plaza, data packets, etc.) and ensuing queues, using queuing theory; (3) how to employ decision trees to incorporate information derived from models to actually make optimal decisions.
- Introductory
- 4 Weeks
- Expert Instructor
- Tuiton-Back Guarantee
- 100% Online
- TA Support
Learning Outcomes
At the end of this course students will understand how to use spreadsheet-based software to construct and implement simulations to model uncertainty in decision inputs and risk intervals. They will model variability in arrivals over time using queuing theory. They will also learn how to use decision trees to incorporate information derived from these models to make optimal decisions.
- Use simulation to describe and measure the impact of uncertainty on decision problems.
- How to use optimization techniques with simulation to mitigate and manage risk.
- How queuing models are used to describe and manage the behavior of waiting lines.
- How to use payoff tables, decision trees and multi-criteria scoring models to analyze decisions problems.
Who Should Take This Course
Risk managers, financial analysts, project managers, operations managers, and others with responsibility for specifying, creating, deploying or interpreting risk analysis and queuing models. Users of risk analysis or queuing software who need to attain a more solid grounding in the subject.
Our Instructors
Dr. Cliff Ragsdale
Course Syllabus
Week 1
Risk Analysis
- Simulation
- Interpreting output
- Implementing & optimizing the model
Week 2
Advanced Simulation
- Poisson distribution, arrival rate
- Service rate
- Operating characteristics
Week 3
Queuing
- Mastering complexity
- Payoff matrix
- Decision rules
- Expected monetary value
- Expected regret
- Expected value of information
- Decision trees
Week 4
Multistage Decision Problems
- Risk profile
- Sensitivity analysis
- Tornado charts
- Using sample information
- Conditional probabilities
- Utility functions
Class Dates
2024
Instructors: Dr. Cliff Ragsdale
Instructors: Dr. Cliff Ragsdale
2025
Instructors: Dr. Cliff Ragsdale
Instructors: Dr. Cliff Ragsdale
Prerequisites
Ability to use Microsoft Excel or similar spreadsheet program is necessary.
Introductory Statistics for Credit
- Skill: Introductory
- Credit Options: ACE, CAP, CEU
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Additional Information
Organization of Course
This course takes place online at The Institute for 4 weeks. During each course week, you participate at times of your own choosing – there are no set times when you must be online. Course participants will be given access to a private discussion board. In class discussions led by the instructor, you can post questions, seek clarification, and interact with your fellow students and the instructor.
At the beginning of each week, you receive the relevant material, in addition to answers to exercises from the previous session. During the week, you are expected to go over the course materials, work through exercises, and submit answers. Discussion among participants is encouraged. The instructor will provide answers and comments, and at the end of the week, you will receive individual feedback on your homework answers.
Time Requirements
This is a 4-week course requiring 10-15 hours per week of review and study, at times of your choosing.
Homework
Homework in this course consists of short answer questions to test concepts and guided data analysis problems using software.
Course Text
Spreadsheet Modeling & Decision Analysis, Eighth edition by Cliff Ragsdale. This text is also used in Optimization: Linear Programming and Integer & Nonlinear Programming and Network Flow.
Software
The course uses Analytic Solver Platform for Education software by Frontline systems. Analytic Solver Platform for Education is an add-in for Excel that performs risk analysis, simulation, optimization, decision trees and other analytical methods. With the purchase or rental of the book, you will have a course code that will enable you to download and install the software for 140 days. If you do not have such a license, a license is also available for course registrants through Statistics.com. Please do not install the regular public trial copy of the software on your own; when the course starts we will provide you with the complete installation instructions to obtain the appropriate copy of the software.
Course Fee & Information
Enrollment
Courses may fill up at any time and registrations are processed in the order in which they are received. Your registration will be confirmed for the first available course date unless you specify otherwise.
Transfers and Withdrawals
We have flexible policies to transfer to another course or withdraw if necessary.
Group Rates
Contact us to get information on group rates.
Discounts
Academic affiliation? In most courses you are eligible for a discount at checkout.
New to Statistics.com? Click here for a special introductory discount code.
Invoice or Purchase Order
Add $50 service fee if you require a prior invoice, or if you need to submit a purchase order or voucher, pay by wire transfer or EFT, or refund and reprocess a prior payment.
Options for Credit and Recognition
This course is eligible for the following credit and recognition options:
No Credit
You may take this course without pursuing credit or a record of completion.
Mastery or Certificate Program Credit
If you are enrolled in mastery or certificate program that requires demonstration of proficiency in this subject, your course work may be assessed for a grade.
CEUs and Proof of Completion
If you require a “Record of Course Completion” along with professional development credit in the form of Continuing Education Units (CEU’s), upon successfully completing the course, CEU’s and a record of course completion will be issued by The Institute upon your request.
ACE CREDIT | College Credit
This course has been evaluated by the American Council on Education (ACE) and is recommended for college credit. For recommendation details (level, and number of credits), please see this page. Please note that the decision to accept specific credit recommendations is up to the academic institution accepting the credit.
ACE Digital Badge
Courses evaluated by the American Council on Education (ACE) have a digital badge available for successful completion of the course.
INFORMS-CAP
This course is recognized by the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS) as helpful preparation for the Certified Analytics Professional (CAP®) exam and can help CAP® analysts accrue Professional Development Units to maintain their certification.
Supplemental Information
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