In 2009, China began regional pilot programs that repurposed credit scores to a broader purpose – scoring a person’s “social credit.” 100 years earlier, at the height of the eugenics craze, the famous statistician Francis Galton undertook to repurpose statistical concepts in service of social engineering. The starting point was a social survey of LondonContinue reading “The Normal Share of Paupers”
Category Archives: General Post
UpLift and Persuasion
The goal of any direct mail campaign, or other messaging effort, is to persuade somebody to do something. In the business world, it is usually to buy something. In the political world, it is usually to vote for someone (or, if you think you know who they will vote for, to encourage them to actuallyContinue reading “UpLift and Persuasion”
Lift and Persuasion
Predicting the probability that something or someone will belong to a certain category (classification problems) is perhaps the oldest type of problem in analytics. Consider the category “repays loan.” Equifax, the oldest of the agencies that provides credit scores, was founded in 1899 as the Retail Credit Company by two brothers, Cator and Guy Woolford. Continue reading “Lift and Persuasion”
Going Beyond the Canary Trap
In 2008, Elon Musk was concerned about leaks of sensitive information at Tesla Motors. To catch the leaker, he prepared multiple unique versions of a new nondisclosure agreement he asked senior officers to sign. Whichever version got leaked would reveal the leak source. This is known as a “canary trap.” The canary trap only worksContinue reading “Going Beyond the Canary Trap”
Statistics.com Acquired by Elder Research
PRESS RELEASE: STATISTICS.COM ACQUIRED BY ELDER RESEARCH
Choosing the Right Analytics Problem
The “streetlight effect:” A man is looking for his keys under a streetlight. Policeman: “Where did you lose them?” Man: “In the alley, near the door to the bar.” Policeman: “Why are you looking here?” Man: “The light’s better.” This is related to the more general “Statistical Type 4 Error” – asking the wrong question, andContinue reading “Choosing the Right Analytics Problem”
Ethical Dilemmas in Data Science
Know those ads that follow you around the web, as a result of tracking cookies? Many see them as an invasion of privacy, and EU rules made them subject to user consent. Google recently announced that Chrome will eventually stop supporting these cookies. A win for the consumer? Perhaps, but there is another side toContinue reading “Ethical Dilemmas in Data Science”
Not Glamorous, But Lucrative
What do stormy days, weekend evenings, and the last day of the month have in common? They are all good times to negotiate a good price for a new car. Inclement days yield less customer traffic in auto showrooms, which is good for the buyer. Weekend evenings, just before closing time, may make sales peopleContinue reading “Not Glamorous, But Lucrative”
Simulating the Complex Sale
Every 30 minutes a new business book is published; many of them purport to teach effective selling. Most of them make sense, but solid quantitative analysis is rarely on the front burner. This is strange, because effective selling requires demonstrating value. Sales professionals are taught to show components of value such as cost savings orContinue reading “Simulating the Complex Sale”
Analytics Meets the Cardboard Box
“Do you have a bag?“ or “Would you like a bag?” have become common parts of the brick-and-mortar retail transaction. Reusable bags, or simply doing without, have reduced the flow of plastic and paper into recycling. E-commerce is a different matter. I just unpacked a box of wine, and dealing with the protective spacers andContinue reading “Analytics Meets the Cardboard Box”
Detecting a Slots Payout Difference of 2%
Most businesses use statistics and analytics to one degree or another, but there is only one industry that is built solely on this discipline. This week we look at the casino business – in particular, the odds on slots. Slot machines are a casino’s best friend. Able to run 24/7 with consistently-sized bets, slots realizeContinue reading “Detecting a Slots Payout Difference of 2%”
Betting and Statistics
Betting has had a long and close relationship with the science of probability and statistics. In the mid-1600’s, the French intellectual and gambler Antoine Gombaud, who called himself Chevalier de Méré, enlisted the help of the mathematician Blaise Pascal to solve several puzzles involving dice games. Pascal’s ensuing work is regarded as the foundation ofContinue reading “Betting and Statistics”
Unforeseen Consequences in Data Science
Unforeseen Consequences in Data Science After the massive Exxon Valdez oil spill, states passed laws boosting the liability of tanker companies for future spills. The result was not as intended: fly-by-night companies, whose bankruptcy would not be consequential, took over the trade. In this blog we look at some notable examples of unforeseen consequences ofContinue reading “Unforeseen Consequences in Data Science”
Data Analytics
Terminology in Data Analytics As data continue to grow at a faster rate than either population or economic activity, so do organizations’ efforts to deal with the data deluge, and use it to capture value. And so do the methods used to analyze data, which creates an expanding set of terms (including some buzzwords) usedContinue reading “Data Analytics”
Data Analytics Courses
Data analytics and data science are popular terms, and skills in these areas are in great demand. But what do these terms mean? Below is an overview and a listing of related courses. For information about our certificate programs in data science and analytics, click here. →Test Yourself Take a 10-question quiz on analytics Data PrepContinue reading “Data Analytics Courses”
Statistical Thinking
Gambler’s Fallacy I – forgetting that the “coin has no memory” Gamblers often believe that after a long streak of one outcome, the probability of a different outcome has increased. Sports commentators often say that a batter in a slump is “due” for a hit. Psychologically, they think that an outcome opposite to the streakContinue reading “Statistical Thinking”
Machine Learning and Human Bias
Does better AI offer the hope of prejudice-free decision-making? Ironically, the reverse might be true, especially with the advent of deep learning. Bias in hiring is one area where private companies move with great care, since there are thickets of laws and regulations in most countries governing bias in employment. The total cost of recruiting,Continue reading “Machine Learning and Human Bias”
Anomaly Detection via Conversation: “How was your vacation?”
A friendly query about your holiday might be a question you get from a roaming agent in the check-in area at the Tel Aviv airport. Israel, considered to have the most effective airport security in the world, does not rely solely on routine mechanical screening of passengers and baggage by low-paid workers. It also usesContinue reading “Anomaly Detection via Conversation: “How was your vacation?””
Meta Analysis
1.2 million scientific papers were indexed by PubMed in 2011 (see Are Scientists Doing Too Much Research), ample proof that there are lots of people studying the same or similar things. For example, there have been Over 100 studies of suicide following psychiatric institutionalization 38 studies of whether e-cigarettes help you quit smoking – 38 studies Continue reading “Meta Analysis”