You might be wondering why such a basic word as probability appears here. It turns out that the term has deep tendrils in formal mathematics and philosophy, but is somewhat hard to pin down
Author Archives: Dave Flatley
Social Network Analysis (SNA) in Medicine
In hospitals, “sentinel events” are events that carry with them a significant risk of unexpected death or harm. It is estimated that ⅔ of such sentinel events result from communications failures during the handoff of a patient from one provider to another (e.g. during a nursing shift change). In a recent paper, a team ofContinue reading “Social Network Analysis (SNA) in Medicine”
Density
Density is a metric that describes how well-connected a network is
Algorithms
We have an extensive statistical glossary and have been sending out a “word of the week” newsfeed for a number of years. Take a look at the results
Gittens Index
Consider the multi-arm bandit problem where each arm has an unknown probability of paying either 0 or 1, and a specified payoff discount factor of x (i.e. for two successive payoffs, the second is valued at x% of the first, where x < 100%). The Gittens index is […]
Cold Start Problem
There are various ways to recommend additional products to an online purchaser, and the most effective ones rely on prior purchase or rating history –
Autoregressive
Autoregressive refers to time series forecasting models (AR models) in which the independent variables (predictors) are prior values of the time series itself.
Industry Spotlight: Hospitals
Hospitals are a major employer of statisticians and analytics professionals, both in support of clinical research like the retinopathy study described earlier, and to improve hospital operations (outcomes, cost management, etc.). Here are a few quick facts about the hospital industry: US hospital revenue totals over $1 trillion – about 5% of GDP. This isContinue reading “Industry Spotlight: Hospitals”
Healthcare Analytics: Exploration versus Confirmation
Perhaps the most active application of analytics and data mining is healthcare. This week we look at one success story, the use of machine learning to predict diabetic retinopathy, one story of disappointment, the use of genetic testing in a puzzling disease, and a basic dichotomy in statistical analysis. In his famous 1977 book thatContinue reading “Healthcare Analytics: Exploration versus Confirmation”
Problem of the Week: Simpson’s Paradox – baseball
Question: A baseball team is comparing two of its hitters, Hernandez and Dimock. Hernandez hit .250 in 2017 and .275 in 2018. Dimock did worse in both years – .245 in 2017 and .270 in 2018. Overall, though, Dimock hit better across the two years, .263 versus .258 for Hernandez. How can this be? Answer:Continue reading “Problem of the Week: Simpson’s Paradox – baseball”
Matching Algorithms
Some applications of machine learning and artificial intelligence are recognizably impressive – predicting future hospital readmission of discharged patients, for example, or diagnosing retinopathy. Others – self-driving cars, for example – seem almost magical. The matching problem, though, is one where your first reaction might be “What’s so hard about that?” For example, to takeContinue reading “Matching Algorithms”
Instructor Spotlight: Cliff Ragsdale
Cliff T. Ragsdale teaches several courses for the Institute in the area of operations research, based on his best selling text “Spreadsheet Modeling and Decision Analysis.” One of Cliff’s special talents is making his subject, which can be quite challenging technically, widely accessible. His courses do not have flashy bells and whistles, but are consistently ratedContinue reading “Instructor Spotlight: Cliff Ragsdale”
Industry Spotlight: Consulting
When a new technology arrives, consulting companies can quickly add staff and expertise to build institutional capacity centered around the technology in ways companies focused on delivering their own products and services cannot. Large consulting companies like Booz Allen and McKinsey, as well as smaller analytics-centric firms like Elder Research, thus constitute a significant jobContinue reading “Industry Spotlight: Consulting”
Industry Spotlight: Baseball (Sports) Statistics
The U.S. baseball season opens Thursday, March 28, and celebrates the 48th season of analytics in baseball, beginning with the founding of the Sabermetric Society in 1971 (the same year that Satchel Paige entered the Hall of Fame). Analytics has come a long way in sports, and now has its own conference, the MIT SportsContinue reading “Industry Spotlight: Baseball (Sports) Statistics”
Industry Spotlight: Package Delivery Business
Nothing better illustrates the encroachment of data science and analytics on the older “economy of tangible things” than the business of delivering packages. The use of analytics in package delivery is not new. Companies like UPS and Fedex are longtime users of operations research methods like optimization and simulation to route inter-city shipments, site newContinue reading “Industry Spotlight: Package Delivery Business”
Industry Spotlight: Credit Scoring
In the U.S., credit scoring is dominated by three companies – Experian, TransUnion and Equifax, employing roughly 30,000 people. An important player in the scoring methodology is FICO, previously Fair Isaac Corporation, and the scores are typically called “FICO scores.” Credit scoring is the oldest application of predictive modeling, fulfilling a need that has beenContinue reading “Industry Spotlight: Credit Scoring”
Industry Spotlight: Agriculture
Weeds are big business – the global herbicide market is over $35 billion annually. Weeds are also big government (think “invasive species”). California’s listing of weeds is called Encycloweedia, and the state publishes a quarterly newsletter called Noxious Times. Colorado publishes a similar periodical, Invader. The weed-killer Roundup is the focus of lawsuits that illustrateContinue reading “Industry Spotlight: Agriculture”
Industry Spotlight: Precision Agriculture
The application of analytics to agriculture has given rise to what is called “precision agriculture,” a science that seeks to take advantage of and use detailed information that is local in time and place. Tractors and farm equipment are being equipped with sensors and software that allow them to respond automatically to external data, andContinue reading “Industry Spotlight: Precision Agriculture”
Job Spotlight: Risk Analyst
Many jobs are centered around risk management. If you’re looking through job postings, of course, you’ll see lots of jobs whose purpose is to make sure that nothing bad happens – the equivalent of locking the doors and closing the windows. More interesting from a statistical perspective are the jobs that assume that bad thingsContinue reading “Job Spotlight: Risk Analyst”
Industry Spotlight: Automotive
The auto industry serves as a perfect exemplar of three key eras of statistics and data science in service of industry: Total Quality Management (TQM) First in Japan, and later in the U.S., the auto industry became an enthusiastic adherent to the Total Quality Management philosophy. Fundamentally, TQM is all about using data to improveContinue reading “Industry Spotlight: Automotive”